Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.458438 3.757052 4.099649 4.529882 5.068575 5.740839 6.681106
2025-02-02 3.169999 3.571153 4.072315 4.774469 5.794791 7.362037 10.400683
2025-02-09 2.932024 3.368503 3.940499 4.797362 6.176729 8.688493 15.733106
2025-02-16 2.771175 3.231229 3.856866 4.847012 6.594338 10.399848 29.995926
2025-02-23 2.579470 3.027767 3.647808 4.654989 6.516815 11.010863 54.749851
2025-03-02 2.477311 2.934728 3.582538 4.675131 6.842649 13.092171 NaN
2025-03-09 2.383324 2.843534 3.507491 4.661862 7.094997 15.491776 NaN
2025-03-16 2.280232 2.731224 3.388631 4.551546 7.092623 17.011147 NaN
2025-03-23 2.237724 2.702172 3.393964 4.663962 7.674814 24.300796 NaN
2025-03-30 2.143090 2.591033 3.260409 4.496266 7.464681 25.012096 NaN
2025-04-06 2.054279 2.484422 3.127728 4.317172 7.183691 24.440492 NaN
2025-04-13 1.985531 2.404538 3.033477 4.203860 7.067061 25.849983 NaN
2025-04-20 1.963905 2.395335 3.055505 4.327307 7.712963 52.616980 NaN
2025-04-27 1.958683 2.410274 3.118330 4.545860 8.838880 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.920824 2.373091 3.090062 4.566564 9.290562 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.889506 2.344269 3.073753 4.611258 9.897733 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.828166 2.266259 2.967344 4.438101 9.420167 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.798667 2.236897 2.944588 4.456301 9.887704 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.766801 2.202472 2.910747 4.444312 10.215101 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.724710 2.150466 2.843045 4.344493 10.019125 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.712471 2.145071 2.858071 4.446209 11.076683 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.667613 2.086301 2.773941 4.294375 10.467144 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.622753 2.026665 2.686777 4.131555 9.780920 NaN NaN